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Time-Series Backtesting — Case Study

Walk-forward validation, slippage model, equity & drawdown analysis, and robust metrics.

Sharpe
1.92
Sortino
2.35
Hit Rate
61%
Max DD
−3.0%
Equity Curve
Drawdown (%)
Strategy Metrics

Approach

We use walk-forward validation with expanding windows to avoid look-ahead bias. Trades use a realistic slippage model and variable position sizing based on forecast confidence. The evaluation reports Sharpe/Sortino, hit rate, and max drawdown, with parameter sweeps auto-logged per run.

The backtester runs nightly and pushes updated equity/drawdown to the dashboard. Approved strategies are promoted to the live execution engine with risk limits and kill-switches.